To say that Netflix’s recent foray into live sports with the Mike Tyson and Jake Paul fight was a mixed bag might be the most optimistic take one could come away with. On one hand, Netflix produced the most-streamed sporting event ever. On the other, the seven-fight card was marred by technical trouble, including buffering, and audio and screen quality issues.

The conversation quickly changed from the fight result to anticipation surrounding Netflix’s upcoming Christmas Day NFL games. While Netflix’s giant leap into live programming is a bold move to diversify beyond on-demand streaming, the stakes couldn’t be higher.

As the platform ventures into one of the most fan-loyal and quality-demanding arenas—live sports—any missteps could threaten their future with NFL games and live sports streaming altogether.

A risky bet could sideline Netflix’s future with live sports streaming

The success of Netflix’s Christmas Day NFL games will be a pivotal moment in the company’s sports streaming strategy. If the technical issues that plagued the Tyson-Paul fight are not addressed, Netflix risks alienating a passionate and demanding audience.

Netflix’s bandwidth issues aren’t the first time the streamer has fumbled a live event. Netflix attempted a Love is Blind live special, only to be delayed, and ultimately pre-recorded the show and posted it later.

Football fans, especially those tuning in on a holiday, expect a seamless viewing experience. Any disruptions, whether it is buffering, pixelation, or complete outages, could have severe consequences for Netflix’s reputation and future sports endeavors.

While the Netflix-CBS partnership could bring added resources to ensure stability, it raises questions about Netflix’s preparedness. In regions like Canada, where Bell Media will broadcast the game on traditional TV while Netflix offers it commercial-free, differences in viewer experiences may highlight the disparities between platforms.

Netflix is also scheduled to host live events with another large fanbase. Starting in January 2025, WWE Raw will move from linear for the first time to Netflix, including other wrestling content such as documentaries, and original series.

Netflix should study game tape on its competitors

NFL fans have had a young history of growing pains getting accustomed to watching football on streaming services. Not having to rely on an internet connection with the programming coming from linear and cable, meant that consumers didn’t have to worry if the game they wanted to watch would freeze up or not play.

The backlash Peacock faced during their exclusive NFL game—where numerous fans vowed never to subscribe again—serves as a cautionary tale for Netflix. Despite initial backlash and the novelty of NFL games streaming exclusively on Peacock, the platform achieved record viewership. This trend is enticing for advertisers seeking a large and engaged audience. While Peacock’s numbers may be smaller than traditional linear TV, they represent a significant milestone for the streaming service.

Amazon Prime had issues with their exclusive Thursday night game but were able to overcome them.

Of course, this too, could just be the growing pains of streaming to a large audience, and Netflix needs to work through its issues like Amazon did. Some have theorized that the Tyson-Paul fight served two purposes—an unconventional boxing matchup that brought in curiosity viewership—and a test for the Christmas games.

Are advertisers concerned?

From an advertiser’s perspective, a genuine concern is that any glitches could impact the ads running properly or could negatively impact NFL fans. Technical issues happen all the time in TV and streaming programming, but most of the time it is the ads running incorrectly and not the actual programming with the technical issues.

Netflix experienced an uptick in subscribers when it launched its advertising tier, which accounts for 10% of its revenue. They also have the lofty goal of doubling their ad revenue in the coming year, and a good showing on Christmas Day would set them up for future special events and ad exclusivity with advertisers.

For what it is worth, the NFL is assuring fans and advertisers that the games will run smoothly. Time is also on their side to fix their infrastructure.

There is too much on the line for Netflix not to get it right. With a hefty investment in exclusive games (approximately $75-80 million a game), sold-out ad space, and a Beyoncé halftime show, the streaming giant’s credibility as a sports platform hangs in the balance. As the clock winds down, Netflix must execute a perfect two-minute drill to captivate audiences and boost subscriber numbers.

In other words, it’s their game to lose.